There are ominous signs that Kamala Harris’ Blue Wall is collapsing

Democratic Senate candidates in Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin are airing pro-Trump adverts. That’s a bad sign for the Vice President

 
Something strange is popping up in Democratic advertisements across the “Blue Wall” states of Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin. In those must-win states for Kamala Harris and Tim Walz, the party’s Senate candidates are distancing themselves from the national ticket. The Senate ads now include some explicit pro-Trump messages and seldom mention Harris. They never mention Joe Biden.
The ads don’t just say that the candidates’ positions match Trump’s, such as “I favour fracking” (in Pennsylvania, where it is a major economic sector). They don’t just avoid mentioning Harris’ previous positions, which are far too progressive for their states. Instead, they openly use Donald Trump’s name in positive terms and say they side with him on particular issues, such as energy production or tariffs.
Take a current ad for Pennsylvania’s incumbent Senator Bob Casey, who is facing a tight race in a state where Trump has pulled even and is gaining momentum. The Casey ad includes a banner saying “Casey Supports Trump’s Trade Order”. That explicit, positive link to Trump is new for Democrats. It is not good news for the Harris campaign.
The party’s Senate candidates are using the same tactic in Wisconsin, where Tammy Baldwin is running for re-election, and Michigan, where Rep Elissa Slotkin hopes to fill an open seat held by a retiring Democrat, Debbie Stabenow.
Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Michigan are crucial states for Vice President Harris. Polls in each of them show the presidential race is a toss-up, within the margin of error. Betting markets are sending a different message. After two months of forecasting a Harris win, they now favour Trump significantly (roughly 60-40) and continue to move in his direction.
Those changing fortunes are reflected in Democratic Senate ads. To voters who are now tilting toward Trump, they say: “You can split your ticket and vote for a Democrat for Senate, even if you support Donald Trump for President”. To political analysts, they say: the candidates are looking at private, internal polls and see the top of the ticket in deep trouble. Why lash themselves too tightly to that?
That’s why Wisconsin’s Tammy Baldwin is now running ads that say, “Tammy Baldwin got President Trump to sign her Made in America bill.” If you actually believe she got Trump to sign anything, you are credulous indeed. Signing protectionist trade bills is the beating heart of Trump’s nationalistic, “Made in America” programme. He would have signed that protectionist bill if Tammy Baldwin had never been born.
In Michigan, Elissa Slotkin’s ads say she “wrote a law signed by President Trump forcing drug companies to show their actual prices”. Another Slotkin ad emphasises her role “passing a law with President Trump that shows patients the pharmacy with the lowest price.” That’s a weaker claim than Baldwin’s and is consistent with Trump’s populist message (which is why Harris’ own message, “Trump is just for the rich,” is tone-deaf. It attacks a much older Republican Party, not Trump’s, which went from the country club to the shop floor.)
The key word in Slotkin’s advertisement is “with”. She did it with Trump, not against him. That’s a dramatic change from previous Democratic messages. It contrasts sharply with Harris’ closing argument that Trump is unstable and a danger to democracy.
The Senate candidates’ shift in tone and distancing from Harris shows that a full-throated anti-Trump message, which works well in California, Illinois, and Massachusetts, is a loser in Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin. The Senate candidates there know it. They have seen it in recent polls, note that the numbers are trending (slightly) toward Trump. They believe he could win their states and have reached a logical conclusion: it is wise to put some distance between themselves and Kamala Harris.
They certainly want Harris to win – they are Democrats – but they don’t want to go down with her if she loses. Their priority is their own victory, not hers. To win, they hope to peel off some votes from Trump supporters. That’s why their ads effectively say, “We won’t staunchly oppose Trump’s agenda as president.”  
That signal means Casey, Baldwin, and Slotkin are likely to have reached four fundamental conclusions:
It’s not surprising to see those conclusions and that advertising message among Democratic candidates in Republican states. They know it is catastrophic to tout their ties to a presidential candidate who is sure to lose locally. That’s why ads for Ohio’s incumbent Senator, Sherrod Brown, say “He wrote a bill that Donald Trump signed to crack down on drugs at the border.” Ohio is now firmly Republican, and Brown wants to run separately from the national ticket.
What is surprising – and telling – is to see similar messages in “purple” states like Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania, which Harris needs to win.
The most important signal to come is whether Casey, Baldwin, and Slotkin will appear on stage with Harris in the closing weeks of the campaign. They will have plenty of opportunities as she crisscrosses their states. Vice President Harris will certainly want to appear with them, but they might not reciprocate that warm, cuddly feeling.
Harris herself adopted that distancing tactic with Joe Biden. She has avoided joint appearances with him except for a few at the National Convention and, early on, in Philadelphia. No more. She knows that he is unpopular, would weigh down her candidacy, and would fatally undermine her message of “A New Way Forward”.
The Blue-Wall Senate candidates also fear being weighed down by a less popular politician and less popular policies. That’s why they will limit joint appearances with Harris and keep Joe Biden in hiding. Far better to appear with Barack or Michelle Obama.
These decisions about whether to campaign alongside Harris will be a telling sign of what their internal polls are saying. Their ads are already sending the message, “We can live with Trump. We just hope pro-Trump voters can live with us and will vote that way.”
That’s a new message for Democratic candidates in swing states. It may be a smart one for those candidates, but it’s an ominous portent for Kamala Harris and Tim Walz.
Charles Lipson is the Peter B Ritzma professor of political science emeritus at the University of Chicago. His latest book is Free Speech 101: A Practical Guide for Students. He can be reached at [email protected]